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Does Climate Change Affect Rapeseed Production in Exporting and Importing Countries? Evidence from Market Dynamics Syntheses

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  • Arifa Jannat

    (Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba 305-8572, Ibaraki, Japan
    Institute of Agribusiness and Development Studies, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh)

  • Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata

    (Global and Local Environment Co-Creation Institute (GLEC), Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito 310-8512, Ibaraki, Japan)

  • Jun Furuya

    (Social Sciences Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Owashi, Tsukuba 305-8686, Ibaraki, Japan)

Abstract

Globally, non-cereal crops such as vegetable oils and their associated products will surpass cereals in demand by 2050, according to the World Bank (WB). Despite being considered an energy-efficient food crop, the production and supply capability of rapeseed is mostly influenced by climate conditions. Aiming in this context, the study explored how temperature and rainfall patterns influence rapeseed production, as well as how rapeseed prices in major trading countries may influence production and consumption patterns in developing countries. To do this, a supply and demand model approach has been employed for major exporting (Canada) and importing countries, i.e., China, the United States (U.S.) along with Bangladesh, a developing nation. The baseline study period was considered from 1991 to 2018, and simulations were performed up to 2040. The findings revealed that the most important effect on rapeseed yield is directly related to changes in temperature, which are positively related to the growing season but negatively related to the maturity stages of rapeseed in all studied countries. Rapeseed exports from Canada are expected to rise by 2040, while imports from China and the U.S. will rise simultaneously. In Canada, the per capita consumption of rapeseed oil is expected to increase from 16 to 24 kg per year between 2019 and 2040. Over the projection period, oil per capita consumption has steadily increased in China, the U.S., and Bangladesh. The relative demand for rapeseed oil is projected to increase by 2060, according to representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Therefore, it is necessary to determine market prices considering the probable climatic effect and increasing market demand for rapeseed to sustain the international market access of trading nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Arifa Jannat & Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata & Jun Furuya, 2022. "Does Climate Change Affect Rapeseed Production in Exporting and Importing Countries? Evidence from Market Dynamics Syntheses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-26, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:10:p:6051-:d:816882
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Arifa Jannat & Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata & Jun Furuya, 2021. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    5. Erik Svanes & Wendy Waalen & Anne Kjersti Uhlen, 2020. "Environmental Impacts of Rapeseed and Turnip Rapeseed Grown in Norway, Rape Oil and Press Cake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Salam, Md. Abdus & Furuya, Jun & Kobayashi, Shintaro, 2017. "Climate Effect on Supply and Market Price Stability of Rice in Bangladesh: Assessment of Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 19.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Aguado & Francesc Xavier Espinach & Fabiola Vilaseca & Quim Tarrés & Pere Mutjé & Marc Delgado-Aguilar, 2022. "Approaching a Zero-Waste Strategy in Rapeseed ( Brassica napus ) Exploitation: Sustainably Approaching Bio-Based Polyethylene Composites," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Arifa Jannat & Kentaka Aruga & Jun Furuya & Miyuki Iiyama, 2022. "Investigating the Impact of International Markets on Imported and Exported Non-Cereal Crops in Bangladesh," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, June.

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