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A dynamic version of Okun's law in the EU15 countries - The role of delays in the unemployment-output nexus

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  • Obst, Thomas

Abstract

This paper estimates Okun's law in the EU15 countries between 1980 and 2018. It employs three different versions of the law with a focus on the dynamic part of the relationship. We find that the negative relationship between unemployment and output holds for most countries and is fairly stable over time. However, Okun's coefficient varies substantially across countries. The dynamic version can shed light on the different country estimates found in the literature and is useful to assess the stability of the law. The paper argues that lag effects need to be taken into account to avoid possible misspecification of the short run unemployment-output relationship. A mixed lag structure indirectly controls for missing explanatory variables and includes possible asymmetries.

Suggested Citation

  • Obst, Thomas, 2019. "A dynamic version of Okun's law in the EU15 countries - The role of delays in the unemployment-output nexus," Discussion Papers 411, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:411
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    Cited by:

    1. Hawkins, Raymond J. & Li, Yichu, 2022. "Okun loops and anelastic relaxation in the EU15," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    2. Hawkins, Raymond J. & Li, Yichu, 2021. "Okun loops and anelastic relaxation in the G7," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 576(C).
    3. Asma Raies, 2023. "Sustainable Employment in Developing and Emerging Countries: Testing Augmented Okun’s Law in Light of Institutional Quality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun's law; unemployment; growth; dynamic modelling; cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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