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Is Inflation Persistence Over?

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  • Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento
  • Petrassi, Myrian Beatriz Silva

Abstract

We analyze inflation persistence in several industrial and emerging countries in the recent past by estimating reduced-form models of inflation dynamics. We select a very representative group of 23 industrial and 17 emerging economies. Our sample period is comprised of quarterly data and starts in the first quarter of 1995. Our results show that inflation persistence is low and stable for all countries in our sample. It seems to be lower in industrial relative to emerging countries. Finally, even countries that have had “hyperinflation” experience in the recent past showed low levels of inflation persistence, albeit apparently higher than the other countries in our sample.

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  • Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento & Petrassi, Myrian Beatriz Silva, 2014. "Is Inflation Persistence Over?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:y:2014:i:3:a:2549
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    1. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2018. "Estimating inflation persistence by quantile autoregression with quantile-specific unit roots," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 407-430.
    2. Machado, Vicente da Gama & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2014. "Measuring inflation persistence in Brazil using a multivariate model," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    3. Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2020. "Expectations anchoring indexes for Brazil using Kalman filter: Exploring signals of inflation anchoring in the long term," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 72-91.
    4. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2015. "Local Unit Root and Inflationary Inertia in Brazil," Working Papers Series 406, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
    6. Michelle Chan & Silvia Matos, 2011. "Changes In Brazilian Inflationpersistence," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2011. "Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1134, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

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