IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/561.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial integration and growth correlation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • J. Acalin
  • B. Cabrillac
  • G. Dufrénot
  • L. Jacolin
  • S. Diop

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between financial integration and the correlation of GDP growth in sub-Saharan African countries. The dynamic nature of financial integration is first emphasized in order to account for both effects of risk sharing on the one hand and intermediation margins and bank rates of return on the other hand. In addition to considering simple variables of growth correlation, we exploit the multiple dimensions of business cycle synchronization first by allowing for asymmetric dynamics during expansion and recession, and by further acknowledging the importance of de-synchronized fluctuations to allow for the costs and benefits of financial integration for an individual country. Our main results are threefold. First, it seems that the financial integration variables are not informative about the likelihood of observing co-movements between the recession phases (after controlling for different variables influencing the business cycle). Secondly, our estimates portray a situation in which both risk-sharing and the convergence of price-based indicators lead to economic specialization rather than to a convergence of the expansion phases. Thirdly, the price-based indicators provide better information than risk-sharing variables to account for business cycle synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Acalin & B. Cabrillac & G. Dufrénot & L. Jacolin & S. Diop, 2015. "Financial integration and growth correlation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working papers 561, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:561
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_561_2015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba, 2009. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(2), pages 287-318, March.
    2. Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi, 2013. "Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2013/034, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    4. Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1998. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 327, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Sandrine Kablan, 2010. "Banking Efficiency and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2010/136, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Narayan K. Kishor & John Ssozi, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Proposed East African Monetary Union: An Unobserved Component Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 664-675, November.
    7. Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 1998. "International risk sharing and European monetary unification," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 211-238, August.
    8. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2010. "Endogenous Optimal Currency Areas: the Case of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(1), pages 25-51, January.
    9. Thorsten Beck & Samuel Munzele Maimbo & Issa Faye & Thouraya Triki, 2011. "Financing Africa : Through the Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2355, December.
    10. Leo Frey & Ulrich Volz, 2013. "Regional Financial Integration In Sub-Saharan Africa – An Empirical Examination Of Its Effects On Financial Market Development," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(1), pages 79-117, March.
    11. Francis M. Kemegue & Ousmane Seck, 2014. "Do African Monetary Arrangements Make Sense? Evidence Based on Structural Symmetry," Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development, in: Diery Seck (ed.), Regional Economic Integration in West Africa, edition 127, pages 79-100, Springer.
    12. Suman Basu & Ran Bi & Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Regional reserve pooling arrangements," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
    13. Simeon Coleman, 2011. "Investigating Business Cycle Synchronization in West Africa," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2011/01, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    14. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    15. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Ms. Iyabo Masha & Mr. Leighton S Harris & Mr. Jian-Ye Wang & Ms. Kazuko Shirono, 2007. "The Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa: Shocks, Adjustment, and Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2007/158, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Albert Mafusire & Zuzana Brixiova, 2013. "Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 261-280, June.
    18. Brennan, M. J. & Solnik, B., 1989. "International risk sharing and capital mobility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 359-373, September.
    19. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Houssa, Romain, 2008. "Monetary union in West Africa and asymmetric shocks: A dynamic structural factor model approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 319-347, February.
    21. Sy, Amadou N. R., 2007. "Financial Integration in the West African Monetary Union," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 91-103.
    22. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2012. "Determinants of Growth Spells: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2012/227, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
    24. Hector Sala & Pedro Trivín, 2014. "Openness, Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(2), pages 257-289.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Gammadigbé, Vigninou, 2012. "Les cycles économiques des pays de l'UEMOA: synchrones ou déconnectés? [Business cycles in the WAEMU countries: synchronous or disconnected?]," MPRA Paper 39400, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2012.
    4. Mattera, Raffaele & Franses, Philip Hans, 2023. "Are African business cycles synchronized? Evidence from spatio-temporal modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Puy, Damien, 2016. "Mutual funds flows and the geography of contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 73-93.
    6. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    7. Agnello, Luca & Nerlich, Carolin, 2012. "On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 149-155.
    8. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Are coffee farmers worse off in the long run?," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311084, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    9. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    11. Grigoraş, Veaceslav & Stanciu, Irina Eusignia, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-52.
    12. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    13. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2003. "Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 3, pages 80-99, November.
    15. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
    16. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    17. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    18. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Ríos, 2015. "Duración del desempleo en Colombia: género, intensidad de búsqueda y anuncios de vacantes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012528, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    20. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial integration; Business cycle correlation; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:561. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.