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What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach

Author

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  • Mr. Shengzu Wang
  • Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello

Abstract

This paper analyzes the factors driving house prices in Australia from a cross-country perspective using several approaches. It uses a cointegration technique to estimate the long-run equilibrium house prices in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada and assesses the extent of a possible disequilibrium. It also presents an event analysis to shed some light on the link between house prices, capital inflows and the terms of trade. The econometric analysis suggests an overvaluation of 5-10 percent depending on the model specification. Event analysis indicates that terms of trade shocks were associated with larger increases in house prices in Australia, than in the case of strong capital inflow episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Shengzu Wang & Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello, 2010. "What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2010/291, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guojie Ma, 2016. "Corporate Behaviour and Market Integration: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2016, January-A.
    2. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 2012/193, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:uts:finphd:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2020. "A Model of the Australian Housing Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(S1), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Dominic Crowley & Shuyun May Li, 2016. "An NPV Analysis of Buying versus Renting for Prospective Australian First Home Buyers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(299), pages 606-630, December.
    7. Paul Corrigan, 2017. "Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study," Staff Working Papers 17-1, Bank of Canada.
    8. Sean Joss Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The effects of capital inflows on South Africa's economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 923-938, June.
    9. James Graham & Alistair Read, 2023. "House Prices, Monetary Policy and Commodities: Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 1-31, March.
    10. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2019. "A Model of the Australian Housing Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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