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The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real Option Model

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  • Carlo Altomonte
  • Enrico Pennings

Abstract

The hazard rate of investment is derived within a real option model, and its properties are analyzed in order to directly study the relation between uncertainty and investment. Maximum likelihood estimates of the hazard are calculated using a sample of MNEs that have invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the period 1990-1998. Employing a standard, non-parametric specification of the hazard, our measure of uncertainty has a negative effect on investment, but the reduced-form model is unable to control for nonlinearities in the relationship. The structural estimation of the option-based hazard is instead able to account for the non-linearities and exhibits a significant value of waiting, though the latter is independent from our measure of uncertainty. This finding supports the existence of alternative channels through which uncertainty can affect investment.

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  • Carlo Altomonte & Enrico Pennings, 2004. "The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real Option Model," Working Papers 259, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:259
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    Cited by:

    1. Natalia VECHIU, 2010. "Globalization and FDIs: determinants and competition effects in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2010-2011_8, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2010.
    2. Natalia Vechiu, 2011. "Globalization and FDIs: determinants and competition effects in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working papers of CATT hal-02948133, HAL.
    3. Li, Sheng & Nadolnyak, Denis & Hartarska, Valentina, 2019. "Agricultural land conversion: Impacts of economic and natural risk factors in a coastal area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 380-390.
    4. George Dikos & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2012. "Econometric testing of the real option hypothesis: evidence from investment in oil tankers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 121-145, February.
    5. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    6. Swinnen, Johan F.M. & Vercammen, James, 2006. "Uncertainty and Specific Investment with Weak Contract Enforcement," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21044, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "The uncertainty-investment relationship with endogenous capacity," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Caroline Witte & Martijn Burger & Elena Ianchovichina & Enrico Pennings, 2014. "Political Violence and Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in Natural Resources," Working Papers 2014/23, Maastricht School of Management.
    9. Altomonte, Carlo & Pennings, Enrico, 2008. "Learning from foreign investment by rival firms: Theory and evidence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1203-1217, September.
    10. Natalia Vechiu, 2011. "Globalization and FDIs: determinants and competition effects in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers hal-02948133, HAL.
    11. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., 2008. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-21.

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