IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joptap/v161y2014i1d10.1007_s10957-013-0298-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Portfolio Decision Rule Under Nonparametric Characterization of the Interest Rate Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • James J. Kung

    (Ming Chuan University)

Abstract

This study develops an optimal portfolio decision rule under nonparametric characterization of the interest rate dynamics. To proceed, we first derive an optimal decision rule based on the long rate and the spread (where $\mathrm{spread} = \mathrm{long\ rate} - \mathrm{short\ rate}$ ); then we employ nonparametric kernel regression to estimate, based on the Nadaraya–Watson (N–W) estimators, the parameters related to the two variables; and finally, using the N–W estimates as inputs, we implement our decision rule by the explicit finite difference scheme to find specifically the optimal allocation of wealth between short and long bonds for an investor with power utility at each time over a ten-year horizon. The following four stylized facts can be observed from our results: (i) the optimal fractions in short bond do not appear to vary with the short rate; (ii) the optimal fractions decrease as the long rate rises and increase as it falls; (iii) the optimal fractions increase as the horizon becomes shorter; and (iv) the optimal fractions generally decrease in the early part of the horizon for more risk-averse investor.

Suggested Citation

  • James J. Kung, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Decision Rule Under Nonparametric Characterization of the Interest Rate Dynamics," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 225-238, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joptap:v:161:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1007_s10957-013-0298-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10957-013-0298-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10957-013-0298-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10957-013-0298-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Richard, Scott F., 1975. "Optimal consumption, portfolio and life insurance rules for an uncertain lived individual in a continuous time model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 187-203, June.
    3. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-560, May.
    5. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    7. Michael Taksar & Michael J. Klass & David Assaf, 1988. "A Diffusion Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection in the Presence of Brokerage Fees," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 13(2), pages 277-294, May.
    8. Stanton, Richard, 1997. "A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
    9. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
    10. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, November.
    11. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 907-929, November.
    12. Dothan, L. Uri, 1978. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-69, March.
    13. J. Lehoczky & S. Sethi & S. Shreve, 1983. "Optimal Consumption and Investment Policies Allowing Consumption Constraints and Bankruptcy," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 613-636, November.
    14. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    2. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    4. Cai, Zongwu & Hong, Yongmiao, 2003. "Nonparametric Methods in Continuous-Time Finance: A Selective Review," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,15, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. James Kung, 2008. "Dynamic strategies for fixed-income investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(10), pages 1341-1354.
    6. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    7. Jun Yu & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "A Gaussian approach for continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-3.
    8. Kristensen, Dennis, 2004. "A semiparametric single-factor model of the term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Antonio Mele, 2003. "Fundamental Properties of Bond Prices in Models of the Short-Term Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 679-716, July.
    10. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2009. "Short-term spot rate models with nonparametric deterministic drift," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 731-747, August.
    11. Bandi, Federico M., 2002. "Short-term interest rate dynamics: a spatial approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 73-110, July.
    12. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    13. Bilel Jarraya & Abdelfettah Bouri, 2013. "A Theoretical Assessment on Optimal Asset Allocations in Insurance Industry," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 30-44, October.
    14. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2011. "Predicting Short-Term Interest Rates: Does Bayesian Model Averaging Provide Forecast Improvement?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n01, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Muteba Mwamba, John & Thabo, Lethaba & Uwilingiye, Josine, 2014. "Modelling the short-term interest rate with stochastic differential equation in continuous time: linear and nonlinear models," MPRA Paper 64386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Xu, Ke-Li, 2010. "Reweighted Functional Estimation Of Diffusion Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 541-563, April.
    17. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    18. Pastorello, S. & Rossi, E., 2010. "Efficient importance sampling maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic differential equations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2753-2762, November.
    19. Bali, Turan G., 2003. "Modeling the stochastic behavior of short-term interest rates: Pricing implications for discount bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 201-228, February.
    20. Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Understanding saving and portfolio choices with predictable changes in assets returns," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(5-6), pages 445-458, April.
    21. Czellar, Veronika & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2007. "Indirect robust estimation of the short-term interest rate process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 546-563, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joptap:v:161:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1007_s10957-013-0298-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.