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The impact of exchange rate volatility on the Nigerian economic growth: An empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Ehikioya Benjamin Ighodalo

    (Department of Financial Studies, Faculty of Management Sciences, National Open University of Nigeria)

Abstract

Aim/purpose – Exchange rate volatility has remained a serious issue affecting economic stability, especially in developing countries. Thus, this study aimed at examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – The study employed the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique to analyse the time series data from the period January 1980 to December 2017. The study used the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Philips–Perron tests to determine the presence of a unit root and the Johansen co-integration test to establish the relationship among the variables in the study. Findings – The results of the estimates offer evidence that exchange rate volatility persists throughout the study period, and has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of Nigeria. This result suggests that excessive volatility due to low inflows is inimical to the growth of the Nigeria economy. The findings of the study demonstrate a negative and significant relationship between inflation and economic growth. Moreover, while credit to the private sector and crude oil prices exerts positive and significant relationship with growth, the relationship between money supply, trade openness and government expenditure and economic growth is positive but insignificant. Research implications/limitations – Therefore, it is important for the government to pursue policies and programs that would help ensure exchange rate stability and boost local production for both consumption and export. In addition, a holistic program of economic reforms is important to complement the exchange rate policy and stimulate economic growth. Originality/value/contribution – The study shed some light on exchange rate volatility and confirmed its adverse effect and the importance of a stable environment on economic growth. In addition, the study introduced crude oil prices as a variable to the study of exchange rate volatility and economic growth from a developing country perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehikioya Benjamin Ighodalo, 2019. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on the Nigerian economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 45-68, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:jecman:v:37:y:2019:i:3:p:45-68:n:7
    DOI: 10.22367/jem.2019.37.03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
    3. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate volatility; economic growth; GARCH; GMM; developing country;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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