IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ipf/finteo/v36y2012i4p395-412.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sign restriction approach to macro stress-testing of the Croatian banking system

Author

Listed:
  • Natasa Erjavec

    (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Boris Cota

    (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Sasa Jaksic

    (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

The paper employs Uhlig’s sign restriction approach to stress-testing of the Croatian banking system. The analysis is based on a standard monetary VAR comprising real economic activity, inflation and short-term interest rates augmented by the ratio of non-performing loans or return on average equity, both measures representing the aggregate banking sector. In spite of the selected indicator, the results suggest a strong sensitivity of the Croatian banking sector to macroeconomic shocks. The effects are the strongest for contractionary monetary policy shocks, followed by negative demand shocks while the effects of supply shocks turned out to be statistically insignificant. Since Croatia is a small open economy with banking the dominant financial sector, the results obtained could be interesting for policy makers in Croatia and other transition economies with similar characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Natasa Erjavec & Boris Cota & Sasa Jaksic, 2012. "Sign restriction approach to macro stress-testing of the Croatian banking system," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 36(4), pages 395-412.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:395-412
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fintp.ijf.hr/upload/files/ftp/2012/4/erjavec_cota_jaksic.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2002:i:3:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Mr. Giovanni Majnoni & Mr. Matthew T Jones & Mr. Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2001/088, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Roland Straub & Gert Peersman, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," IMF Working Papers 2006/135, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Harvir Kalirai & Martin Scheicher, 2002. "Macroeconomic Stress Testing: Preliminary Evidence for Austria," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 58-74.
    9. Mr. Martin Cihak, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2007/059, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olayinka Akinlo & Mofoluwaso Emmanuel, 2014. "Determinants Of Non-Performing Loans In Nigeria," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(2), pages 21-28.
    2. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-66.
    3. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Derviş Kirikkaleli & Fatih Ayhan, 2023. "Nexus between non‐performing loans and economic growth in emerging countries: Evidence from Turkey with wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1250-1260, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
    2. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    3. Eickmeier Sandra & Worms Andreas & Hofmann Boris, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    4. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    5. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. repec:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:193-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    8. Michael Artis, 2008. "What do we now know about currency unions?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 13-29.
    9. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
    10. Martin Èihák, 2005. "Stress Testing of Banking Systems (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(9-10), pages 418-440, September.
    11. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    12. Schenkelberg, Heike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2013. "Real effects of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 327-357.
    13. Yang, Bill Huajian, 2014. "Modeling Systematic Risk and Point-in-Time Probability of Default under the Vasicek Asymptotic Single Risk Factor Model Framework," MPRA Paper 59025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Timo Bettendorf & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2019. "German Wage Moderation and European Imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 617-653, March.
    15. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2009. "VARMA models for Malaysian Monetary Policy Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    16. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2020. "Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    17. Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Robust Sign Restrictions In A Euro Area Svar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 727-750, August.
    18. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological change, financial innovation, and diffusion in banking," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    19. Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and its Effect on Macroeconomic Volatility in Selected CEE Countries," Working Papers 2015/07, Czech National Bank.
    20. P. Jacob, 2010. "Disaggregating Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Structural Approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/655, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    21. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2014. "Phillips curve shocks and real exchange rate fluctuations: SVAR evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2014, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:395-412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martina Fabris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ijfffhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.