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Indeterminacy in foreign exchange markets

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  • Pasquini, Michele
  • Serva, Maurizio

Abstract

We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and an error process. The presence of the latter, which dominates at short time scales, leads to indeterminacy principle in finance. Furthermore, dynamics does not allow for a scheme based on independent probability distributions, since volatility exhibits a strong correlation even at the shortest time scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Pasquini, Michele & Serva, Maurizio, 2000. "Indeterminacy in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 228-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:277:y:2000:i:1:p:228-238
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(99)00589-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yanhui Liu & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Pierre Cizeau & Martin Meyer & Chung-Kang Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "The statistical properties of the volatility of price fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/9903369, arXiv.org, revised Mar 1999.
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    7. Pasquini, Michele & Serva, Maurizio, 1999. "Multiscale behaviour of volatility autocorrelations in a financial market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 275-279, December.
    8. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Berardi, Luca & Serva, Maurizio, 2005. "Time and foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 403-412.

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