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Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Rubilar-González

    (Universidad del Bío Bío
    Fundación Promueve)

  • Gabriel Pino

    (Universidad de Talca)

Abstract

By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers who can focus their efforts on strengthening economies identified as more sensitive to international disturbances. Our results also reveal a lack of synchronization of the expectations across the Euro-Area. This also takes importance for policy implications given common public policies can have undesired impacts across the different Euro-Area economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Rubilar-González & Gabriel Pino, 2018. "Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:9:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s13209-017-0170-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-017-0170-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle phases; Expectations; Economic Sentiment Indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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