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Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis

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  • Castelar, Ivan
  • Arruda, Elano Ferreira
  • Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda

Abstract

This article analyses Brazil’s recent inflation dynamic, considering different expectations environments within the New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework, to observe how the potential for discretionary behaviour by the monetary authority can interfere in economic agents’ forward-looking expectations, and how that interference can affect the way inflation responds to its inertial component and to business-cycle fluctuations. To that end, the study estimates the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid version, using the heteroscedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) estimator of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results suggest that, when economic agents possess lower degrees of foresight, inflation will be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations the larger is its inertial component.

Suggested Citation

  • Castelar, Ivan & Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda, 2018. "Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:43955
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