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Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices

Author

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  • Sergey Smirnov
  • Nikolay Kondrashov
  • Anna Petronevich

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was possible only on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts
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Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Smirnov & Nikolay Kondrashov & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Post-Print hal-01692230, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01692230
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0014-9
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    2. Barend Abeln & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2023. "CAMPLET: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Seasonal Adjustment Without Revisions, chapter 0, pages 7-29, Springer.
    3. Pönkä, Harri & Zheng, Yi, 2019. "The role of oil prices on the Russian business cycle," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-78.
    4. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov, 2019. "Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 363-375, Springer.
    5. Gregory Brock & Constantin Ogloblin, 2018. "Russian 1998–2007 TFP decomposed: some inspiration emerging from inherited Soviet legacy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 135-151, May.
    6. Balashova, Svetlana & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Oil prices shocks and the Russian economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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