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Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Bacchini

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Cristina Brandimarte

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Piero Crivelli

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Roberta De Santis

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Marco Fioramanti

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Alessandro Girardi

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Roberto Golinelli

    (University of Bologna, Department of Economics)

  • Cecilia Jona-Lasinio

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Massimo Mancini

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Carmine Pappalardo

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Daniela Rossi

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Marco Ventura

    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Claudio Vicarelli

    (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica)

Abstract

This paper provides a description of Istat’s new Macroeconometric Model MeMo-It. This is the tool used by Istat to produce bi-annual medium-term forecasts of the Italian economy since May 2012. The key model’s features are illustrated and compared with other modeling approaches used in the literature. The paper describes the theoretical foundations of the model along with the set of equations and their estimation. It also presents an assessment of model’s performance by focusing on the key multipliers

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:isa:journl:v:15:y:2013:i:1:p:17-45
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    2. Ilenia Romani & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Lanza, 2022. "Besides promising economic growth, will the Italian NRRP also produce fewer emissions," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 41-66.
    3. F. Bacchini & M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & C. Jona Lasinio, 2014. "ICT and Non-ICT investments: short and long run macro dynamics," Working Papers wp956, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Fabio Bacchini & Maria Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2018. "Short- and long-run heterogeneous investment dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 343-378, March.
    5. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    6. Samvel S. Lazaryan & Evgenii V. Mayorov, 2018. "Prospects for the Use of DSGE Models by Finance Ministries: The Experience of Global Regulators," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 70-82, October.
    7. Hjelm, Göran & Bornevall, Helena & Fromlet, Pia & Nilsson, Jonny & Stockhammar , Pär & Wiberg, Magnus, 2015. "Appropriate Macroeconomic Model Support for the Ministry of Finance and the National Institute of Economic Research: A Pilot Study," Working Papers 137, National Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Romani, Ilenia & Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro, 2022. "Besides promising economic growth, will the Italian NRRP also produce fewer emissions?," FEEM Working Papers 319781, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_958, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Fabio Bacchini, Maria Elena Bontempi, Cristina Brandimarte, Roberto Golinelli, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, Carmine Pappalardo, 2013. "The Macroeconometric Models For Italy (Memo-It): Policy Evaluation And Future Challanges," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(2), pages 172-179, April-Jun.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconometric models; econometric forecasts; theory-first vs data-first models; model specification; fiscal policy multipliers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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