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Characterizing India’s Financial Cycle

Author

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  • Harendra Behera
  • Saurabh Sharma

Abstract

The severity of the effects of global financial crisis resuscitates the need for assessing the macro-financial linkages and measuring financial cycle to prevent the economy from major financial shocks. Our article measures financial cycle by using turning point analysis, spectral analysis and band-pass filter and provides the evidence on the existence of financial cycle in India. We find the length and duration of cycles in financial variables are much greater as compared to the business cycle. While both credit and equity prices drive financial cycles over time, the contribution of house prices has increased since mid-2000s. We find that the expansionary phase of the financial cycle provides an early warning signal about stress build-up in the banking sector and impending depress in the economy. JEL Codes: C22, E30, E44, E58, G18

Suggested Citation

  • Harendra Behera & Saurabh Sharma, 2022. "Characterizing India’s Financial Cycle," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 152-183, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:21:y:2022:i:2:p:152-183
    DOI: 10.1177/09726527221077727
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial cycle; business cycle; recession; macro-prudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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