IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v120y2016icp144-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies

Author

Listed:
  • Araujo, Juliana D.
  • Li, Bin Grace
  • Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos
  • Zanna, Luis-Felipe

Abstract

The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial development needs and tight external borrowing constraints. By relaxing these constraints and providing a key financing source for public investment, resource windfalls might then be associated with current account deficits or at least low surpluses. In this paper, we develop a neoclassical model with private and public investment and several pervasive features in RRDCs, including absorptive capacity constraints, inefficiencies in investment, borrowing constraints, and capital scarcity. We use the model to study the role of investment and these frictions in shaping the current account dynamics under windfalls. Since consumption and investment decisions are optimal, the model also serves to analyze current account norms (benchmarks). We apply the model to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa and discuss how our results can be used to inform external sustainability analyses in RRDCs.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:120:y:2016:i:c:p:144-156
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.10.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387815001169
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.10.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    3. Takashi Kano & James M. Nason, 2014. "Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 519-544, March.
    4. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have," NBER Working Papers 5847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    7. Frederick Ploeg, 2012. "Bottlenecks in ramping up public investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 509-538, August.
    8. Era Dabla-Norris & Jim Brumby & Annette Kyobe & Zac Mills & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 235-266, September.
    9. Aleksandrov, Nikolay & Espinoza, Raphael & Gyurkó, Lajos, 2013. "Optimal oil production and the world supply of oil," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1248-1263.
    10. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, April.
    11. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, December.
    12. Sen, Partha & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1989. "Deterioration of the terms of trade and capital accumulation: A re-examination of the Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 227-250, May.
    13. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    14. Mr. Paul Cashin & Christopher J. Kent, 2003. "The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters," IMF Working Papers 2003/143, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mr. Rolando Ossowski & Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. James Daniel & Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis, 2001. "Stabilization and Savings Funds for Nonrenewable Resources," IMF Occasional Papers 2001/004, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    17. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
    20. Kim, Jinill & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2009. "How much inflation is necessary to grease the wheels?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 365-377, April.
    21. Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner, 2012. "Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: The Role of Political Institutions," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 78-99.
    22. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2010. "A theory of infrastructure-led development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 932-950, May.
    23. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    24. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    25. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    26. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Alessandro Prati & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/002, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
    28. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Fiscal policy and Dutch disease," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 121-138, June.
    29. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5lc99v0teo898rban7bgs9reua is not listed on IDEAS
    30. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    31. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    32. repec:idb:brikps:59538 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen, 2017. "The Return to Foreign Aid," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 998-1018, July.
    35. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    36. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-of-Trade Shocks: The Experience of the Oil-Exporting Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1999/134, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
    38. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1983. "Debt and the Current Account Deficit in Brazil," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 187-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2007. "Natural Resources : Neither Curse nor Destiny," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7183, September.
      • Anthony J. Venables & William Maloney & Ari Kokko & Claudio Bravo Ortega & Daniel Lederman & Roberto Rigobón & José De Gregorio & Jesse Czelusta & Shamila A. Jayasuriya & Magnus Blomström & L. Colin X, 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59538 edited by William Maloney & Daniel Lederman, February.
    40. Kano, Takashi & 加納, 隆 & Nason, James M., 2012. "Appendix: Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models," Discussion Papers 2012-08, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    41. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "Natural Resource Wealth: The Challenge of Managing a Windfall," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 315-337, July.
    42. Mr. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 2011/195, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Bruce Preston & Mauro Roca, 2007. "Incomplete Markets, Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/281, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Mansoorian, Arman, 1991. "Resource Discoveries and 'Excessive' External Borrowing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1497-1509, November.
    46. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    47. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    48. Serven, Luis, 1999. "Terms-of-trade shocks and optimal investment: another look at the Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-365.
    49. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    50. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "The volatility trap: Precautionary saving, investment, and aggregate risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 174-185, April.
    51. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    52. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    53. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting together the Pieces," IMF Working Papers 2012/144, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Judd, Kenneth L. & Juillard, Michel, 2010. "Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents: Incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-3, January.
    55. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    56. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
    57. Mr. H. Takizawa & Mr. E. H. Gardner & Mr. Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 2004/141, International Monetary Fund.
    58. Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Andrew Berg & Jan Gottschalk & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios," IMF Working Papers 2010/160, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Mauricio Villafuerte & Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/04, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    61. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    62. Paul Collier & Rick Van Der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 84-118, April.
    63. Mr. Alun H. Thomas & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income," IMF Working Papers 2009/248, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Thomas Baunsgaard & Christine J. Richmond, 2012. "Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/004, International Monetary Fund.
    65. Mr. Thomas William Dorsey & Ms. Zuzana Brixiova & Sukhwinder Singh & Mr. Helaway Tadesse, 2008. "The Landscape of Capital Flows to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/051, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agenor, P.-R., 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and the Macroeconomic Dynamics of Small Indebted Economies," Princeton Studies in International Economics 82, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    2. Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
    3. Wills, Samuel, 2018. "Leave the volatility fund alone: Principles for managing oil wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 332-352.
    4. Li, Bin Grace & Gupta, Pranav & Yu, Jiangyan, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 7-25.
    5. Samuel Wills, 2015. "Seven Principles for Managing Resource Wealth," Economics Series Working Papers OxCarre Research Paper 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Christine J. Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Ms. Susan S. Yang, 2013. "Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies: An Application to Angola," IMF Working Papers 2013/147, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
    8. Sayadi, Mohammad & Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa, 2020. "Assessing Alternative Investment Policies in a Resource-Rich Capital-Scarce Country: Results from a DSGE analysis for Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. King Yoong Lim & Shuonan Zhang, 2023. "Optimal fiscal management in an economy with resource revenue‐financed government‐linked companies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2202-2225, April.
    10. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    11. Levine,Paul Leslie & Melina,Giovanni & Onder,Harun & Levine,Paul Leslie & Melina,Giovanni & Onder,Harun, 2016. "Non-renewable resources, fiscal rules, and human capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7695, The World Bank.
    12. Christine Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2015. "Investing Volatile Resource Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 193-221, February.
    13. Issouf Samaké & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Mr. Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 2013/144, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Lacina Balma & Daniel Gurara, 2019. "Working Paper 324 - Public Investment, Time-to-Build, and Fiscal Stimulus," Working Paper Series 2450, African Development Bank.
    15. Salifou Issoufou & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mouhamadou Bamba Diop & Kalidou Thiaw, 2014. "Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal," IMF Working Papers 2014/044, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Chowdhury, Abdur, 2015. "Terms of trade shocks and private savings in the developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 1122-1134.
    17. Chuku Chuku & Jacob Oduor & Anthony Simpasa & Peter Mwanakatwe, 2019. "Working Paper 318 - A DGE Model for Growth and Development Planning: Malawi," Working Paper Series 2444, African Development Bank.
    18. Keyra Primus, 2016. "Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," IMF Working Papers 2016/188, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Thomas McGregor, 2017. "Pricing sovereign debt in resource rich economies," OxCarre Working Papers 194, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    20. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting together the Pieces," IMF Working Papers 2012/144, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:120:y:2016:i:c:p:144-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.