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Navigating Energy Market Cycles: Insights from a Comprehensive Analysis

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This study explores the complex dynamics of energy market cycles under the influence of financial deregulation and technological advancements. Employing the extended Bry-Boschan Quarterly (BBQ) algorithm and the Cox hazard model, it identifies market turning points, factoring in geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and other systemic influences. The findings reveal pronounced asymmetry in energy market expansion phases, highlighting the critical drivers of market fluctuations. Policymakers are urged to consider these dynamics, especially as interest rate and US dollar shocks propel market expansion, while effective management is key to mitigating associated instabilities. Economic growth positively impacts energy prices during contraction periods, emphasizing the role of growth-stimulating policies. The nuanced effects of Conferences of Parties (COP) meetings are introduced as an emerging area for further research.

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  • Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Almajali Mutah, Awon & Canepa, Alessandra, 2024. "Navigating Energy Market Cycles: Insights from a Comprehensive Analysis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202422, University of Turin.
    • Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:202422
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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