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Monetary Policy and the Homeownership Rate

Author

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  • James Graham
  • Avish Sharma

Abstract

How does monetary policy affect the homeownership rate? A monetary contraction may have contrasting effects on ownership due to rising interest rates, falling incomes, and lower house prices. To investigate, we build a heterogeneous household life-cycle model with housing tenure decisions, mortgage finance, and an exogenous stochastic process to capture the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy. Following a contractionary shock, homeownership initially falls due to rising mortgage rates, but rises over the medium term given falling house prices. We also show that differences in mortgage credit conditions, mortgage flexibility, and household expectations formation can amplify homeownership dynamics following a shock.

Suggested Citation

  • James Graham & Avish Sharma, 2024. "Monetary Policy and the Homeownership Rate," Working Papers 2024-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2024-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianni La Cava & Calvin He, 2021. "The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 387-397, September.
    2. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2020. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 271-293, September.
    3. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    4. Daniel Greenwald & Adam Guren, 2019. "Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?," 2019 Meeting Papers 1334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. James Graham, 2024. "A Structural Model of Mortgage Offset Accounts in the Australian Housing Market," Working Papers 2024-09, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    6. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    7. repec:bla:ausecr:v:40:y:2007:i:3:p:225-238 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2020. "A Model of the Australian Housing Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(S1), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Benjamin Beckers, 2020. "Credit Spreads, Monetary Policy and the Price Puzzle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Ong, Rachel & Graham, James & Cigdem, Melek & Phelps, Christopher & Whelan, Stephen, 2023. "Financing first home ownership: modelling policy impacts at market and individual levels," SocArXiv p59te, Center for Open Science.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Homeownership; monetary policy; interest rates; house prices; heterogeneous households;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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