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Heterogeneous recessions and expansions in Mexican regions and sectors

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  • Miguel A. Mascarúa Lara

Abstract

This study uses a Markov regime-switching model with time-varying means to identify subnational, sectoral, and national economic phases. The model replicates the official business cycle dates in Mexico and quantifies the contributions of states, regions, and sectors to the national recession probability. The findings show that the southern region contributes differently to the national recession probability than the other regions, even increasing it during expansionary periods at the national level. Additionally, the manufacturing sector is found to account for up to half of the national recession probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel A. Mascarúa Lara, 2024. "Heterogeneous recessions and expansions in Mexican regions and sectors," Working Papers 2024-13, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Expansions; Recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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