IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfa/aefjnl/v6y2019i5p145-157.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Welfare Effect of Monetary Financing

Author

Listed:
  • Tersoo Shimonkabir SHITILE
  • Abubakar SULE

Abstract

This study ascertained the direction and asymmetric pass-through of central bank¡¯s monetary financing to welfare in Nigeria using annual time series data covering the period 1970 to 2018. The study depended on both the Monetarist and Keynesian theoretical postulations to provide insights on the policy significance of monetary financing. To undertake the empirical analysis, the study applied both the linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique. Unlike the ARDL equation, the estimated NARDL equation established that welfare losses respond negatively to both positive and negative changes in monetary financing; but the impact of negative monetary financing shock (7.11) is greater than the positive shock (2.87). In addition, the study found that it takes about 9 to 11 quarters for the changes in positive and negative monetary financing to fully release its effects on welfare loss. Besides, the results revealed that welfare loss is also driven by oil price, which is suggestive from oil price pass-through to domestic prices (exchange rate and consumer prices). The study, therefore, supports monetary financing in proper amounts and conditions to boost aggregate nominal demand but not to spur a fully-fledged monetary policy capture in the process.

Suggested Citation

  • Tersoo Shimonkabir SHITILE & Abubakar SULE, 2019. "Welfare Effect of Monetary Financing," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 145-157, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:6:y:2019:i:5:p:145-157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/4444/4630
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/4444
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Barro, Robert J., 1987. "Government spending, interest rates, prices, and budget deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-247, September.
    5. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Jaromir Benes, 2012. "The Chicago Plan Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2012/202, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    7. L. Randall Wray, 2024. "Modern Money Theory," Springer Books, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-47884-0, July.
    8. Jalali Naini, Ahmad Reza & Naderian, Mohammad Amin, 2017. "Oil Price Cycles, Fiscal Dominance and Counter-cyclical Monetary Policy in Iran," MPRA Paper 84480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Carlos De Resende & Nooman Rebei, 2008. "The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance," Staff Working Papers 08-28, Bank of Canada.
    10. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Christopher Phelan, 1999. "Explaining the fiscal theory of the price level," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Fall), pages 14-23.
    11. Sabate, Marcela & Gadea, Maria Dolores & Escario, Regina, 2006. "Does fiscal policy influence monetary policy? The case of Spain, 1874-1935," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 309-331, April.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    13. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, July.
    14. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    15. Paul R. Bergin & Ivan Tchakarov, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Matter for Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 9900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Charles Engel, 2014. "Exchange Rate Stabilization and Welfare," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 155-177, August.
    17. Nissan Liviatan, 2003. "Fiscal Dominance and Monetary Dominance in the Israeli Monetary Experience," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.17, Bank of Israel.
    18. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
    19. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    20. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2005/221, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Melitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38.
    24. Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, 2007. "Death and Taxes, Including Inflation: the Public versus Economists," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 4(1), pages 46-59, January.
    25. Afolabi, Joseph Olarewaju & Atolagbe, Oluwafemi, 2018. "Empirical analysis of fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 88786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Understanding Modern Money," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1668.
    27. Donald L. Huddle, 1975. "Measurements of Static Welfare Losses, Distribution Inequities, and Revenues in the Brazilian Multiple Auction Exchange Rate System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 89(3), pages 490-503.
    28. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    2. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    3. Chadha, J.S. & Nolan, C., 2003. "On the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0303, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Luca Sala, 2004. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 257, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Creel, Jerome & Bihan, Herve Le, 2006. "Using structural balance data to test the fiscal theory of the price level: Some international evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 338-360, June.
    6. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    7. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    8. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    9. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 2001. "La théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix, un bilan critique," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 111(6), pages 909-939.
    10. Emilio Congregado & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2023. "Deficit sustainability and fiscal theory of price level: the case of Italy, 1861–2020," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 755-782, August.
    11. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Money as stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-528, April.
    12. Bennett T. Mccallum, 2003. "Is The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 634-649, November.
    13. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    14. António Afonso, 2002. "Disturbing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Can it Fit the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths," Working Papers 0533, Banco de España.
    16. Marco Bassetto, 2002. "A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2167-2195, November.
    17. Betty C. Daniel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Crises and Fiscal Solvency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1109-1135, September.
    18. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5122 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hess Chung & Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 809-842, June.
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5122 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy capture; government spending; monetary financing; welfare; autoregressive distributed lag; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:6:y:2019:i:5:p:145-157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Redfame publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.