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Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation

Author

Listed:
  • Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Bertrand Candelon

    (Economics - Maastricht University [Maastricht])

  • Christophe Hurlin

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Franz C. Palm

    (Maastricht University [Maastricht])

Abstract

In this paper we propose a multivariate dynamic probit model. Our model can be considered as a non-linear VAR model for the latent variables associated with correlated binary time-series data. To estimate it, we implement an exact maximum-likelihood approach, hence providing a solution to the problem generally encountered in the formulation of multivariate probit models. Our framework allows us to apprehend dynamics and causality in several ways. Furthermore, we propose an impulse-response analysis for such models. An empirical application on three nancial crises is nally proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Bertrand Candelon & Christophe Hurlin & Franz C. Palm, 2012. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Working Papers halshs-00630036, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00630036
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00630036v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
    4. Maixé-Altés, J. Carles & Iglesias, Emma M., 2015. "Banking, Currency, Stock Market and Debt Crises: Revisiting Reinhart & Rogoff Debt Analysis in Spain, 1850-1995," MPRA Paper 68199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
    7. Carsten Jentsch & Lena Reichmann, 2022. "Generalized binary vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 285-311, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-linear VAR; Multivariate dynamic probit models; Exact maximum likelihood; Impulse-response function; Financial crises; VAR non-linéaire; Probit multivarié dynamique; foction de réponse; Crise financière;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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