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Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence

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  • Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa
  • Mr. Prakash Loungani
  • Mr. Herman O. Stekler

Abstract

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Herman O. Stekler, 2011. "Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/125, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/125
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