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Unveiling the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on pulse production in Bangladesh for sustainable solutions: exploring the long-run and short-run dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Farhana Arefeen Mila

    (Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University
    University of New England)

  • Monira Parvin Moon

    (Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University
    Nagoya University)

  • Mst. Noorunnahar

    (Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University)

  • Mohammad Kabir Hasan Shahjada

    (Bangladesh Agricultural University)

Abstract

This study highlights the urgent need for sustainable pulse production solutions in Bangladesh, given the nutritional and economic importance of pulses and the increasing challenges posed by climate change. Data from 1972 to 2020 were analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamics affecting pulse production. Granger causality tests was also employed to explore causal relationships and significant influences among the variables. The results revealed that average annual rainfall significantly enhances long-term pulse production, while temperature and humidity had insignificant negative effects. Conversely, carbon dioxide emissions showed a substantial negative long-term impact on pulse production. Non-climatic factors, such as pulse area, total population, and fertilizer use, showed significant positive effects in the long run, whereas energy consumption in agriculture remained statistically insignificant. In the short-run, pulse area, total population, and fertilizer use notably boosted production, while energy consumption continued to be insignificant. Granger causality tests identified causal links between CO2 emissions and total population, as well as two-way relationships between rainfall, pulse area, and production. These findings provide critical insights for stakeholders and policymakers in developing sustainable pulse production strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhana Arefeen Mila & Monira Parvin Moon & Mst. Noorunnahar & Mohammad Kabir Hasan Shahjada, 2024. "Unveiling the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on pulse production in Bangladesh for sustainable solutions: exploring the long-run and short-run dynamics," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 1051-1076, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:8:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s41685-024-00355-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-024-00355-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shaikh Mohammad Bokhtiar & Sheikh Md. Fakhrul Islam & Md. Mosharraf Uddin Molla & Md. Abdus Salam & Md. Abdur Rashid, 2023. "Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
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