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A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ducanes, Geoffrey

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Cagas, Marie Anne

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Qin, Duo

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Quising, Pilipinas

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper describes a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy. The model consists of sectors of private consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and labor. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations. The tracking performance of the model, both within-sample and out-of-sample, is evaluated and found satisfactory. Policy simulations indicate it is crucial that the Philippine government address its debt problem for it to achieve higher future growth. Oil price simulations also show the country is highly vulnerable to external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ducanes, Geoffrey & Cagas, Marie Anne & Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn, 2005. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 62, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0062
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006. "Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-84, February.
    3. Yap, Josef T., 2002. "A Perspective on Macroeconomic and Economy-Wide Quantitative Models of the Philippines: 1990-2002," Discussion Papers DP 2002-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Applied Econometrics without Sinning," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 591-604, September.
    5. Yap, Josef T., 2000. "PIDS Annual Macroeconometric Model 2000," Discussion Papers DP 2000-13, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Balisacan, Arsenio M. & Hill, Hal (ed.), 2003. "The Philippine Economy: Development, Policies, and Challenges," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195158984.
    7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey Ducanes & Marie Anne Cagas & Duo Qin & Pilipinas Quising & Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, 2006. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policies: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, China, Indonesia and the Philippines," Working Papers 564, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006. "Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-84, February.
    3. Sam Olofin & Olusanya Olubusoye & Afees A. Salisu & Alarudeen Aminu & Uwatt B. Uwatt & Micheal A. Adebiyi, 2017. "Revision of the small macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy," Working Papers 032, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    4. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
    5. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2007. "Automatic Leading Indicators (ALIs) versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs): Comparison of Inflation and GDP growth Forecasting," EcoMod2007 23900072, EcoMod.
    7. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    8. Olofin, S.O. & Olubusoye, O.E. & Mordi, C.N.O. & Salisu, A.A. & Adeleke, A.I. & Orekoya, S.O. & Olowookere, A.E. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2014. "A small macroeconometric model of the Nigerian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 305-313.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    equilibrium-correction form; macroeconometric model; oil price simulations; Philippine economy; policy simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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