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The information content of discount rate announcements: what's behind the announcement effect?

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  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

A considerable volume of research shows that asset prices respond to changes in the Federal Reserve's discount rate. While several competing hypotheses have been advanced to explain the market's response to discount rate announcements, comparatively little effort has been made to differentiate among alternative hypotheses. The result is an abundance of evidence establishing that asset prices respond to discount rate announcements, but little if any agreement about why markets respond. This article attempts to fill a void in the literature by pointing out how competing hypotheses differ and by constructing tests explicitly designed to differentiate among competing explanations. The evidence suggest that the market's reaction to discount rate changes is purely an announcement effect, i.e., a reaction to new information contained in the announcement, that the direct effect of discount rate changes on market rates is nil, that the announcement effect is invariant to the Federal Reserve's operating procedure and that, generally speaking, changes in the discount rate do not signal a change in monetary policy. The announcement effect appears to vary with both the nature and extent of the information that the announcement of a discount rate change is believed to contain.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "The information content of discount rate announcements: what's behind the announcement effect?," Working Papers 1994-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1994-032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2001. "Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-262, September.
    2. Giorgio Valente, 2005. "US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Working Papers 092005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Thornton, Daniel L, 2000. "Lifting the Veil of Secrecy from Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 155-167, May.
    4. Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
    5. Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1999. "Monetary environments and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1357-1381, September.
    6. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
    7. Tavares, José & Sazedj, Sharmin, 2011. "Hope, Change, and Financial Markets: Can Obama's Words Drive the Market?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Manfred J.M. Neumann & Jens Weidmann, 1997. "The Information Content of German Discount Rate Changes," Macroeconomics 9706006, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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