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The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Barry P. Bosworth

    (The Brookings Institution)

  • Ralph C. Bryant

    (The Brookings Institution)

  • Gary Burtless

    (The Brookings Institution)

Abstract

All major industrial countries will experience significant population aging over the next several decades. In both academic circles and the business press it is widely believed that population aging will have important effects on financial markets because of its expected impact on saving rates and the demand for investment funds. This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic and asset market effects of population aging, focusing on four related issues: (a) The impact of population age structure on aggregate household saving; (b) The effect of population aging on investment demand; (c) Evidence on the influence of population age structure on financial market asset prices and returns; and (d) Effects of globalization on our interpretation of the impact of demographic change.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:crr:crrwps:2004-23
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    2. Arezki, Rabah, 2010. "Asymmetric demographic shocks and institutions: The impact on international capital flows and welfare," MPRA Paper 27683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Guonan Ma & Haiwen Zhou, 2009. "China's Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset Position," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(5), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
    5. E Philip Davis, 2006. "How Will Ageing Affect the Structure of Financial Markets?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Araújo, Eurilton, 2013. "Robust monetary policy with the consumption-wealth channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 296-311.
    7. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population ageing matter?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 193-219, March.
    8. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat & Jacob Braude, 2009. "Fertility and the real exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 496-518, May.
    9. Jan Babecky & Kamil Dybczak, 2009. "The Impact of Population Ageing on the Czech Economy," Working Papers 2009/1, Czech National Bank.
    10. Mr. Erik Lueth, 2008. "Capital Flows and Demographics—An Asian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2008/008, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    12. Busl, Claudia & Iliewa, Zwetelina & Jokisch, Sabine & Kappler, Marcus & Roscher, Thomas & Schindler, Felix & Schleer, Frauke, 2012. "Endbericht an das Bundesministerium der Finanzen zum Forschungsauftrag fe 11/11: "Sparen und Investieren vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels"," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110554.
    13. Marianna Brunetti, 2007. "Population Ageing, Household Portfolios and Financial Asset Returns: a Survey of the Literature," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 171-208.
    14. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global aging : issues, answers, more questions," Papers 07-28, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    15. Stefan W. Schmitz, 2005. "Demographic Developments, Funded Pension Provision and Financial Stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 9, pages 93-109.
    16. Berk, Jillian & Weil, David N., 2015. "Old teachers, old ideas, and the effect of population aging on economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 661-670.
    17. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
    18. Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Kazi Saiful ISLAM, 2009. "Challenges Of Urban Planning At The Face Of Counter-Urbanization," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(2(11)), pages 152-165, May.
    20. Weifeng Liu & Warwick McKibbin, 2022. "Global macroeconomic impacts of demographic change," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 914-942, March.
    21. Marwan Abdul-Malik Thanoon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2012. "Comparing Savings Behavior in Asia and Latin America: The Role of Capital Inflows and Economic Growth," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(1), pages 113-131, January-J.

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    Keywords

    aging; saving; investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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