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Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

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  • Gregory, Allan W.
  • Reeves, Jonathan J.

Abstract

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers' strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory, Allan W. & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2008. "Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 167-176, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:167-176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon Rausser & William Balson & Reid Stevens, 2010. "Centralized clearing for over‐the‐counter derivatives," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(4), pages 346-359, November.
    2. Stefano Ferretti, 2023. "On the Modeling and Simulation of Portfolio Allocation Schemes: an Approach Based on Network Community Detection," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 969-1005, October.

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