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The determinants of the recent interregional migration flows in Italy: A panel data analysis

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  • Etzo, Ivan

Abstract

The present study investigates the determinants of interregional migration flows in Italy in the light of the upsurge occurred in 1996, after two decades of decreasing internal migration rates. We apply the fixed effect vector decomposition estimator (FEVD) on a gravity model using bilateral migration flows for the period 1996-2005 and show that it improves the estimates with respect to the traditional panel data estimators. We find that omitting distance and in presence of rarely time invariant covariates (e.g., population and income) the standard panel data models significantly bias the estimates. The overall economic level and the probability to find a job (proxied by per capita GDP and unemployment rate) appear to be the key variables whose changes are able to push flows of migrants away from their regions and to direct them to “better off” destinations. We find that migrants leaving the regions in the Centre-North respond differently to the push and pull forces with respect to southern migrants. We then estimate a dynamic model and find evidence for the presence of social networks which in our model take place between each pair of regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Etzo, Ivan, 2010. "The determinants of the recent interregional migration flows in Italy: A panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 26245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26245
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    1. Ahmad Nawaz & Muhammad Shakeel & Sadia Mushtaq, 2022. "Unemployment, Governance And Migration Flows In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 31-43, June.
    2. Marre, Alexander W. & Rupasingha, Anil, 2017. "School Quality and Rural In-Migration: Can Improving the Quality of Rural Schools Attract New Residents?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259134, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Alexander W. Marré & Anil Rupasingha, 2020. "School quality and rural in‐migration: Can better rural schools attract new residents?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 156-173, January.
    4. Antczak Elżbieta & Lewandowska-Gwarda Karolina, 2015. "Analysis of Emigration in Europe Using the Spatial Dynamic Shift-Share Method," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 7-26, December.
    5. Anil Rupasingha & Yongzheng Liu & Mark Partridge, 2015. "Rural Bound: Determinants of Metro to Non-Metro Migration in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 680-700.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interregional migration; gravity model; panel data; FEVD.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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