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Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

Author

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  • Agnieszka Gehringer

    (Cologne University of Applied Sciences)

  • Thomas Mayer

    (University of Witten-Herdecke)

Abstract

This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:17:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-021-00054-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-021-00054-6
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    1. Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind, 2021. "Development Of Composite Indicators Of Cyclical Response In Business Surveys Considering The Specifics Of The ‘Covid-19 Economy’," HSE Working papers WP BRP 121/STI/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Grecu Robert-Adrian, 2022. "Synchronization of Business Cycles in European Union Countries," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 217-228, August.
    3. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle dating; Recession; Principal component analysis; German economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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