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Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?

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  • Marika Karanassou

    (Queen Mary, University of London and IZA)

  • Hector Sala

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and IZA)

Abstract

The debate in Australia on the (constant-output) elasticity of labour demand with respect to wages has wrongly sidelined the role of capital stock as a determinant of employment (Webster, 2003). As far back as 1991, Pissarides had argued that the influence of capital stock on the performance of the labour market is crucial but not well understood, a research area which is particularly relevant for Australia. This paper attempts to fill this void by estimating a multi-equation labour market model comprising labour demand, wage setting and labour supply equations. The model is used to examine the causes of the unemployment upturn in 1973-1983 and the subsequent decline in 1993-2006. Our results show that (i) the main determinants of the unemployment rise in the 1970s and early 1980s were wage-push factors, the two oil price shocks and the increase in interest rates, and (ii) the acceleration in capital accumulation was the crucial driving force of unemployment in the 1990s and 2000s. Furthermore, although the recent boom in the terms of trade is equally important, its downward effect on unemployment was partially reversed by the resulting decrease in net foreign demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2009. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Working Papers 636, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:636
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    Cited by:

    1. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2010. "The US inflation-unemployment trade-off revisited: New evidence for policy-making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 758-777, November.
    2. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1863-1883, November.
    3. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2014. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 47(2), pages 173-188, June.
    4. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Leites, Martín & Porras, Sylvina, 2016. "Unemployment dynamics in Uruguay: an analysis using chain reaction theory," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    6. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2011. "The Australian Phillips curve and more," Papers 1102.1851, arXiv.org.
    7. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1863-1883, November.
    9. Martin Leites & Sylvina Porras, 2013. "El enfoque de la Reacción en Cadena: una aplicación para explicar la dinámica del desempleo en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 13-11, Instituto de Economía - IECON.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market dynamics; Capital accumulation; Chain reaction theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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