IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ndjtrf/206759.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Yao, Vincent W.
  • Sloboda, Brian W.

Abstract

This paper predicted fluctuations in the transportation sector using leading indicators. From 25 initial candidates, we selected seven leading indicators, using various screening techniques and modern time series models. A composite leading index was constructed and found to perform well in predicting transportation reference cycles. The leading index signals downturns in the transportation sector 10 months ahead and upturns six months ahead on average. The index predicted the latest recession in transportation with a lead of 20 months. The analysis also confi rms the predictive contents of the composite leading index (CLI) in relation to transportation growth cycles. These evaluation criteria ensure accurate forecasts of the general state of the transportation sector in a timely fashion.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Vincent W. & Sloboda, Brian W., 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ndjtrf:206759
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.206759
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/206759/files/831-941-1-PB.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.206759?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roy Batchelor, 2001. "Confidence indexes and the probability of recession: a Markov switching model," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 107-124, January.
    2. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Introduction to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages -13--1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
    6. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Appendices to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 669-767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, June.
    8. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 2, Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor61-2, June.
    9. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
    10. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages -35--15, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor61-1, June.
    14. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
    2. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
    4. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Marek Raczko, 2018. "Measuring financial cycle time," BIS Working Papers 755, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Ilse Mintz, 1974. "Dating United States Growth Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 1, Number 1, pages 1-113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    7. Geoffrey H. Moore & Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "Appendix A: The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 735-780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    9. repec:ilo:ilowps:278801 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kajal Lahiri, Wenxiong Yao, and Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    11. Xun Zhang & Guihuan Zheng & Wei Shang & Shangying Xu & Xiaoguang Yang & Kin Keung Lai & Shou-Yang Wang, 2009. "An Integrated Decision Support Framework For Macroeconomic Policy Making Based On Early Warning Theories," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 335-359.
    12. Marcel, Mario., 1990. "Leading indicators for employment forecasting in developing countries," ILO Working Papers 992788013402676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka & Terrones, Marco E., 2020. "Global Recessions," MPRA Paper 98608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2015. "Business Cycles, Credit Cycles and Bank Holdings of Sovereign Bonds: Historical Evidence for Italy 1861-2013," CESifo Working Paper Series 5318, CESifo.
    16. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 595-600.
    17. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2014. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2014(3), pages 1-69, February.
    18. Ritabrata Bose & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-033, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    19. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    21. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial Organization;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ndjtrf:206759. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.trforum.org/journal/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.