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External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model

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  • Morita, Hiroshi

Abstract

This study investigates the sources of Japanese business fluctuations since the 1990s, taking into account both external shocks (e.g., risk premium and foreign demand shocks) and domestic supply and demand shocks. We use the sign-restricted VAR model based on the theoretical model to identify these shocks. The presented results show that approximately 30–50% of the forecast error variances in output can be explained by external shocks. Further, we demonstrate that supply shock is the main influencing factor in Japanese business fluctuations throughout the sample period and that the role of external shocks has been growing in the post-Lehman period, including the effect of the Great East Japan Earthquake.

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  • Morita, Hiroshi, 2014. "External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:59-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2014.02.005
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    Cited by:

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    3. Satoshi Urasawa, 2018. "Structural Change and Business Cycles in Japan: Revisiting the Stylized Facts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 243-281, November.
    4. Fujii, Hidemichi & Assaf, A. George & Managi, Shunsuke & Matousek, Roman, 2015. "Did the Financial Crisis Affect Environmental Efficiency? Evidence from the Japanese Manufacturing Sector," MPRA Paper 66363, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External shock; DSGE model; Sign-restricted VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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