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High-growth recoveries, inventories and the great moderation

Author

Listed:
  • Máximo Camacho

    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Gabriel Pérez Quirós
  • Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal

    (Instituto de Análisis Económico (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE - Instituto de Análisis Económico (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE)

Abstract

We present evidence about the disappearance of the high-growth recoveries from recessions with intense job creation typically observed until the eighties. This result matches the belief that recessions now have an L-shape as opposed to the old-time recessions that always had a V-shape. We also show how this change in business cycle dynamics can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies

Suggested Citation

  • Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2011. "High-growth recoveries, inventories and the great moderation," Post-Print hal-00828978, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00828978
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.004
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00828978
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    Cited by:

    1. Frederique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2209-2222.
    2. María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos & Gabriel Pérez‐Quirós, 2018. "Great Moderation And Great Recession: From Plain Sailing To Stormy Seas?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 2297-2321, November.
    3. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Jens R Clausen, 2010. "Cyclical Behavior of Inventories and Growth Projections Recent Evidence From Europe and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2010/212, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gadea, María Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2017. "Dissecting US recoveries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 59-63.
    6. Barthélémy, Sylvain & Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2020. "Worldwide economic recoveries from financial crises through the decades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Corey J.M. Williams, 2022. "The evolution of inventory dynamics in a post-crisis economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 2214-2230.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E32; F02; C22; Business cycle features; Great Moderation; High-growth recovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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