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Recurrent conditional heteroskedasticity

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  • Trong‐Nghia Nguyen
  • Minh‐Ngoc Tran
  • Robert Kohn

Abstract

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in‐sample analysis and out‐of‐sample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In particular, we incorporate auxiliary deterministic processes, governed by recurrent neural networks, into the conditional variance of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models, for example, GARCH‐type models, to flexibly capture the dynamics of the underlying volatility. RECH models can detect interesting effects in financial volatility overlooked by the existing conditional heteroskedastic models such as the GARCH, GJR, and EGARCH. The new models often have good out‐of‐sample forecasts while still explaining well the stylized facts of financial volatility by retaining the well‐established features of econometric GARCH‐type models. These properties are illustrated through simulation studies and applications to 31 stock indices and exchange rate data. An user‐friendly software package, together with the examples reported in the paper, is available at https://github.com/vbayeslab.

Suggested Citation

  • Trong‐Nghia Nguyen & Minh‐Ngoc Tran & Robert Kohn, 2022. "Recurrent conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1031-1054, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:37:y:2022:i:5:p:1031-1054
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2902
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen Liu & Chao Wang & Minh-Ngoc Tran & Robert Kohn, 2023. "Deep Learning Enhanced Realized GARCH," Papers 2302.08002, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    2. Chen Liu & Minh-Ngoc Tran & Chao Wang & Richard Gerlach & Robert Kohn, 2023. "Global Neural Networks and The Data Scaling Effect in Financial Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2309.02072, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    3. Martin Magris & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2023. "Variational Inference for GARCH-family Models," Papers 2310.03435, arXiv.org.

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