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The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II

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  • Matthias Morys
  • Martin Ivanov

Abstract

Relying on dynamic factor business cycle indices for five South-East European countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia), we document steadily increasing synchronisation as part of a pan-European business cycle before 1913 and the emergence of a regional business cycle (including and radiating from Germany) in the interwar period. These dynamics were largely driven by trade, involving initially England, France and Germany but increasingly centred on Germany. Our results also show that the Balkan countries travelled a long way from an economic backwater of Europe in the 1870s to a much more integrated part of the European economy six decades later.

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  • Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2013. "The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 13/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:cherry:13/01
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Morys, 2015. "Any lessons for today? Exchange-rate stabilisation in Greece and South-East Europe between economic and political objectives and fiscal reality, 1841-1939," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 15/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Matthias Morys, 2016. "Financial supervision to fight fiscal dominance? The gold standard in Greece and South-East Europe between economic and political objectives and fiscal reality, 1841-1939," Discussion Papers 16/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Matthias Morys, 2022. "Has Eastern Europe Always Lagged Behind the West? Historical Evidence from Pre‐1870," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 3-21, April.
    4. Marco Rubilar-González & Gabriel Pino, 2018. "Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    South-East European business cycle; national historical accounts; common dynamic factor analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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