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Effects of Anticipated Fiscal Policy Shock on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Japan

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  • Hiroshi Morita

    (Hosei University)

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic dynamics in Japan with a particular focus on the effects of anticipated fiscal policy shock and the recent policies of Abenomics. We identify anticipated fiscal policy shock by combining excess stock returns for the construction industry and the vector autoregressive model with robust sign restrictions derived from a theoretical model. The primary result is that GDP and consumption respond positively to anticipated fiscal policy shock. In addition, the result of the historical decomposition that focuses on the period of Abenomics reveals that anticipated fiscal policy shock positively contributes to consumption dynamics.

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  • Hiroshi Morita, 2017. "Effects of Anticipated Fiscal Policy Shock on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 364-393, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:68:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1111_jere.12140
    DOI: 10.1111/jere.12140
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    Cited by:

    1. Morita, Hiroshi & 森田, 裕史, 2019. "Forecasting Public Investment Using Daily Stock Returns," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-88, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Morita, Hiroshi, 2020. "Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Japanese Fiscal Policy under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-97, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Lu, Zhenkun & Kameda, Keigo, 2024. "Impact of fiscal policies on the labor market with search friction: An estimated DSGE model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2021. "Public investment multipliers: Evidence from stock returns of the road pavement industry in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan: Theory and empirics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E62; C32; H30;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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