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New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle

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  • Veaceslav Grigoras
  • Irina Eusignia Stanciu

Abstract

Business cycle synchronisation (or the lack thereof) has fallen once again under the spotlight of policy and academic circles. In the spirit of Burns and Mitchell and the NBER, this paper dates turning points for most European countries and the US. Later on, synchronisation is addressed through a series of measures, studying the clustering of turning points, along with indicators of concordance and correlation. Last but not least, the main properties of cycles are analysed, in order to provide a more comprehensive view on business cycle similarities. We conclude that previous to the Great Recession the European business cycle has been constantly enforced by formal or informal cohesion between EU member states. However, post-crisis developments show signs of a great disconnect, both within Europe and between Europe and the US. Moreover, heterogeneity of business cycle measures hints at a possible overstating of business cycle synchronisation within the EU.

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  • Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2016-q3-147-2
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    2. Luis J. Álvarez & M.ª Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "La evolución cíclica de la economía española en el contexto europeo," Occasional Papers 2103, Banco de España.
    3. Bogdan Munteanu, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: Changing European Central Bank’S Perspective On Financial Governance," Europolity – Continuity and Change in European Governance - New Series, Department of International Relations and European Integration, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 11(1), pages 1-32.
    4. Uctum Merih & Uctum Remzi & Vijverberg Chu-Ping C., 2021. "The European growth synchronization through crises and structural changes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Chrysostomos Stoforos & Stavros Degiannakis & Panagiotis Delis & George Filis & Theodosios Palaskas, 2024. "Business Cycles Synchronization: Literature Review," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(4), pages 222-249, December.
    6. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.
    7. Luboš Hanus & Lukáš Vácha, 2020. "Growth cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1779-1795, April.
    8. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    10. Ľubica Štiblárová, 2020. "Traditional and Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedures: Evidence for the Euro Area and the Czech Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 263-274.
    11. Benoit Dicharry & Lubica Stiblarova, 2023. "Positive externalities of the EU cohesion policy: Toward more synchronised CEE countries?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 485-508, July.
    12. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    13. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    14. Sylvia Gottschalk, 2023. "From Black Wednesday to Brexit: Macroeconomic shocks and correlations of equity returns in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2843-2873, July.
    15. Kovačić, Zlatko & Vilotić, Miloš, 2017. "Assessing European business cycles synchronization," MPRA Paper 79990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Krzysztof Beck, 2021. "Capital mobility and the synchronization of business cycles: Evidence from the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1065-1079, September.
    18. Beck, Krzysztof & Yersh, Valeryia, 2024. "Economic integration and consumption risk sharing: A comparison of Eurozone and OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 784-803.
    19. Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy coordination and the European business cycle: Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1095-1114, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle dating; Business cycles synchronisation; International business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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