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The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets

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  • Lucy F. Ackert
  • Bryan K. Church

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that prices do not always reflect fundamental values and individual behavior is often inconsistent with rational expectations theory. We report the results of fourteen experimental markets designed to examine whether the interactive effect of subject pool and design experience tempers price bubbles and improves forecasting ability. Our main findings are: (i) price run-ups are modest and dissipate quickly when traders are knowledgeable about financial markets and have design experience; (ii) price bubbles moderate quickly when only a subset of traders are knowledgeable and experienced; and (iii) individual forecasts of price are not consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations model in any market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church, 1998. "The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:98-18
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2002. "Bubbles in experimental asset markets: Irrational exuberance no more," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Richard Deaves & Brian D. Kluger, 2006. "The origins of bubbles in laboratory asset markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2003. "Emotion and financial markets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 88(Q2), pages 33-41.
    4. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 1999. "The effect of forecast bias on market behavior: evidence from experimental asset markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
    6. K.S. Muehlfeld & G.U. Weitzel & A. van Witteloostuijn, 2012. "Fight or freeze? Individual differences in investors’ motivational systems and trading in experimental asset markets," Working Papers 12-18, Utrecht School of Economics.

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