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Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China

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  • Chandio, Abbas Ali
  • Dash, Devi Prasad
  • Nathaniel, Solomon Prince
  • Sargani, Ghulam Raza
  • Jiang, Yuansheng

Abstract

Northern and Southern regions are the two major wheat production belts of China. Agro–climatic resources have changed significantly in recent years, threatening staple food production in these regions. As a result, it is critical to investigate the long–term effect of climate change and agri–inputs on wheat production in China's top six wheat producing provinces (Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei) from 1995 to 2020. The estimated long-run results from the FGLS, DOLS, and D–K estimators revealed that climatic factors, specifically temperature, had a negative impact on wheat production, while precipitation had a positive impact. The findings also revealed that agrochemical inputs, such as fertilizer, increases wheat production, whereas pesticide use decreases wheat production significantly. The results from the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test showed a bidirectional causality between rainfall, fertilizer use, and cultivated area with wheat production, while a unidirectional causality association is running from labor force to wheat production. The current study provides several critical policy recommendations for China's sustainable food production through green agricultural practices and robust climate mitigation strategies.

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  • Chandio, Abbas Ali & Dash, Devi Prasad & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince & Sargani, Ghulam Raza & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:481:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023001126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110381
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhipeng Wang & Ershen Zhang & Guojun Chen, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in Major Grain-Producing Counties: A Comparative Study of Two Provinces from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-30, September.
    2. Khan, Aftab & Wang, Chao, 2024. "Exploring the consequence of ecological and agronomic determinants on wheat production instabilities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: Perspectives from dynamic autoregressive distributed lag analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    3. Leghari, Shah Jahan & Han, Wenting & Soomro, Aijaz Ahmed & Shoukat, Muhammad Rizwan & Zain, Muhammad & Wei, Yichang & Xu, Qiang & Buriro, Mahmooda & Bhutto, Tofique Ahmed & Soothar, Rajesh Kumar & Lag, 2024. "Navigating water and nitrogen practices for sustainable wheat production by model-based optimization management systems: A case study of China and Pakistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Wheat production; Panel data models; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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