IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/3685.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Lars E.O. Svensson

Abstract

An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French Franc/Deutsche Mark data during the European Monetary System. The behavior of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of Bertola-Svensson (1990) . We are also able to predict actual realignments with some success.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," NBER Working Papers 3685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3685
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3685.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
    3. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 217-292.
    4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    5. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
    7. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    8. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bodnar, Gordon M., 1992. "Target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 373-408, December.
    9. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    10. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-196, May.
    11. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    12. Axel A. Weber, 1990. "Credibility, Reputation and the Conduct of Economic Policies Within the European Monetary System," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 11-90, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
    13. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    14. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    15. Bodnar, G., 1991. "Target Zones and Euro-Rates: A Model of Eurocurrency Interest Rate Differentials in the European Monetary System," Papers 91-03, Rochester, Business - General.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
    3. Jess Rodr?uez L?ez & Hugo Rodr?uez Mendiz?al, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: Target Zones Revisited," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 518.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    4. Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, 1992. "Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire. Théorie et application au système monétaire européen," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1107-1128.
    5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993. "Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
    6. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    7. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Regime: Target Zones Revisited," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/10, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    8. Esaka, Taro, 2000. "The Louvre Accord and central bank intervention: was there a target zone?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 107-126, May.
    9. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16, June.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey & Phillips, Steven, 1992. "The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 791-816, October.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    12. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007. "The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, September.
    13. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J., 1995. "EMS exchange rate bands: a Monte Carlo investigation of three target zone models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 311-328, April.
    14. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    15. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
    16. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2008. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case," GEMF Working Papers 2008-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    17. Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017. "FX options in target zones," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
    18. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    19. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
    20. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.