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The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia

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  • L. V. DEFRIS
  • R. A. WILLIAMS

Abstract

This paper analyzes the quantitative price expectations of consumers as obtained from consumer surveys. Price expectations are considered as functions of (i) past rates of inflation (ii) other economic variables, and (iii) consumer sentiment variables. The dominant influence on expectations is the most recent change in the consumer price index. Wage‐indexation decisions and changes in the money supply also exert a significant influence on mean expectations. The variability of price expectations across consumers is proportional to the mean level of expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • L. V. Defris & R. A. Williams, 1979. "The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(2), pages 136-148, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:55:y:1979:i:2:p:136-148
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1979.tb02213.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1972. "Inflation and the Consumer," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 71-122.
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    4. Pagan, Adrian, 1974. "A Generalised Approach to the Treatment of Autocorrelation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(23), pages 267-280, December.
    5. Laidler, David, 1978. "Money and money income: An essay on the `transmission mechanism'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 151-191, April.
    6. Parkin, Michael & Sumner, Michael & Ward, Robert, 1976. "The effects of excess demand, generalized expectations and wage-price controls on wage inflation in the UK: 1956-1971," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 193-221, January.
    7. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1977. "An Empirical Investigation of Inflationary Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 39(4), pages 291-299, November.
    8. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    9. repec:bla:econom:v:39:y:1972:i:153:p:60-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. T. J. Valentine, 1977. "Price Expectations in Australia: An Alternative Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(3), pages 390-404, September.
    11. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Predictive Efficiency of Economic Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 331-343, July.
    12. Danes, Michael, 1975. "The Measurement and Explanation of Inflationary Expectations in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(24), pages 75-87, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuxiang, Karl & Chen, Zhongchang, 2010. "Monetary policy credibility and inflationary expectation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 487-497, August.
    2. Jocelyn Horne, 1981. "Rational Expectations and the Defris‐Williams Inflationary Expectations Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(3), pages 261-268, September.
    3. Ranyard, Rob & Missier, Fabio Del & Bonini, Nicolao & Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara, 2008. "Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 378-400, August.
    4. Chris M. Alaouze, 2003. "A modified logit model for time series with an application to the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms in Australia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 599-613, July.
    5. Sam Ouliaris, 1981. "Household Saving and The Rate of Interest," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(3), pages 205-214, September.
    6. Peter Saunders, 1981. "The Formation of Producers' Price Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(4), pages 368-378, December.
    7. Gärling, Tommy & Gamble, Amelie & Christandl, Fabian, 2013. "Income increases do not compensate for perceived inflation—A price-consumption anomaly," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-15.

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