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Learning, externalities, and export dynamics: Evidence from Chilean exporters

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  • Hamilton, Ben

Abstract

This paper presents a model of exporting with demand uncertainty where incumbents reveal signals about a shared component of demand that potential entrants use to update beliefs. Using Chilean export data, signals are estimated and used to examine the effects of information on entry into new markets, quantity of output sold, and duration of exporting. A one-standard-deviation-increase in signals by incumbents is associated with 6.3% higher entry rates, 11.7% larger first-year export volumes, and 0.6% longer duration. Information spillovers are larger in distant countries, in countries where Spanish is not an official language, for homogeneous products, and for larger firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamilton, Ben, 2023. "Learning, externalities, and export dynamics: Evidence from Chilean exporters," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 497-517.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:77:y:2023:i:4:p:497-517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2023.09.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Learning about demand; Export dynamics; Externalities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L15 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Information and Product Quality

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