IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reecon/v77y2023i4p497-517.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning, externalities, and export dynamics: Evidence from Chilean exporters

Author

Listed:
  • Hamilton, Ben

Abstract

This paper presents a model of exporting with demand uncertainty where incumbents reveal signals about a shared component of demand that potential entrants use to update beliefs. Using Chilean export data, signals are estimated and used to examine the effects of information on entry into new markets, quantity of output sold, and duration of exporting. A one-standard-deviation-increase in signals by incumbents is associated with 6.3% higher entry rates, 11.7% larger first-year export volumes, and 0.6% longer duration. Information spillovers are larger in distant countries, in countries where Spanish is not an official language, for homogeneous products, and for larger firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamilton, Ben, 2023. "Learning, externalities, and export dynamics: Evidence from Chilean exporters," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 497-517.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:77:y:2023:i:4:p:497-517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2023.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944323000595
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rie.2023.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    2. Broda, Christian & Greenfield, Joshua & Weinstein, David E., 2017. "From groundnuts to globalization: A structural estimate of trade and growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 759-783.
    3. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Lionel Nesta & Stefano Schiavo, 2010. "Financial Constraints and Firm Export Behaviour," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 347-373, March.
    4. Poncet, Sandra & Mayneris, Florian, 2013. "French Firms Penetrating Asian Markets : Role of Export Spillovers," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 28, pages 354-374.
    5. Fernandes, Ana P. & Tang, Heiwai, 2014. "Learning to export from neighbors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-84.
    6. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 4, pages 87-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Nicolas Berman & Vincent Rebeyrol & Vincent Vicard, 2019. "Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 91-106, March.
    8. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    9. Michael J. Dickstein & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "What do Exporters Know?," Working Papers 18-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Costas Arkolakis & Theodore Papageorgiou & Olga Timoshenko, 2018. "Firm Learning and Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 146-168, January.
    11. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    12. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
    13. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Entering new country and product markets: does export promotion help?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 437-467, September.
    14. Andrew B. Bernard & Esther Ann Boler & Renzo Massari & Jose-Daniel Reyes & Daria Taglioni, 2017. "Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3211-3228, October.
    15. Michael J Dickstein & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "What do Exporters Know?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1753-1801.
    16. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
    17. Martina Lawless & Zuzanna Studnicka, 2024. "Old Firms and New Export Flows: Does Experience Increase Survival?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 215-243, April.
    18. Koenig, Pamina, 2009. "Agglomeration and the export decisions of French firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 186-195, November.
    19. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Entering new country and product markets: does export promotion help?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 437-467, September.
    20. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    21. Leonardo Iacovone & BeataS. Javorcik, 2010. "Multi-Product Exporters: Product Churning, Uncertainty and Export Discoveries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 481-499, May.
    22. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity (DOI:10.111/j.1467-937x.2007.00463.x)," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 985-985.
    23. Timoshenko, Olga A., 2015. "Product switching in a model of learning," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 233-249.
    24. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2009. "Importers, Exporters and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 513-552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Facundo Albornoz & Hector Calvo-Pardo & Gregory Corcos & Emanuel Ornelas, 2012. "Sequential exporting: how firms break into foreign markets," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 364, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    26. Nguyen, Daniel X., 2012. "Demand uncertainty: Exporting delays and exporting failures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 336-344.
    27. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    28. Blum, Bernardo S. & Claro, Sebastian & Horstmann, Ignatius J., 2013. "Occasional and perennial exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 65-74.
    29. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01045033 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Tang, Heiwai, 2019. "Excessive entry and exit in export markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2023. "Sequentially exporting products across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2017. "Export survival and the dynamics of experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 271-300, May.
    4. Fernandes, Ana P. & Tang, Heiwai, 2014. "Learning to export from neighbors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-84.
    5. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. SHIMAMOTO Daichi & Yu Ri KIM & TODO Yasuyuki, 2019. "The Effect of Social Interactions on Exporting Activities: Evidence from Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises in rural Vietnam," Discussion papers 19020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Carsten Eckel & Ina Charlotte Jäkel & Luca Macedoni & Raymond Riezman & Raymond G. Riezman, 2024. "Testing the Waters: How Firms Enter New Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 11340, CESifo.
    8. Li, Shengyu, 2018. "A structural model of productivity, uncertain demand, and export dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Wei, Shang-Jin & Wei, Ziru & Xu, Jianhuan, 2021. "On the market failure of “missing pioneers”," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Jesse Mora, 2023. "Export failure and its consequences: evidence from Colombian exporters," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 697-755, August.
    11. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "A survey of empirical studies using transaction level data on exports and imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 215-225, February.
    12. Timoshenko, Olga A., 2015. "Product switching in a model of learning," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 233-249.
    13. Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, 2022. "Internalization of externalities in international trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 469-497, July.
    14. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. TANI Naoki & OGAWA Eiji, 2024. "Firms' Internationalization Decisions and Demand Learning," Discussion papers 24019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez, 2021. "Previous experience, experimentation and export survival: Evidence from firm‐product‐destination level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2638-2682, September.
    17. Mohammad Tariful Bari & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2021. "Networks, human capital and export success: evidence from Bangladesh," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1539-1566, September.
    18. He, Dongwei & Wang, Yunfei & You, Kai, 2023. "Market entry and the dynamics of export product quality: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 692-706.
    19. Paulo Bastos & Daniel A. Dias & Olga A. Timoshenko, 2018. "Learning, prices and firm dynamics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 1257-1311, November.
    20. Bai, Xue & Hong, Shengjie & Wang, Yaqi, 2021. "Learning from processing trade: Firm evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 579-602.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Learning about demand; Export dynamics; Externalities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L15 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Information and Product Quality

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:77:y:2023:i:4:p:497-517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.