IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/amu/wpaper/2014-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Change, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Balance of Payments in Mexico, 1960-2012

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Blecker

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural model of the balance of payments, with disaggregated exports (manufactured and non-manufactured) and imports (final and intermediate goods), and a reduced form model of the trade balance for the Mexican economy. The analysis identifies several structural breaks, implying a division of the entire sample period into five phases. The results indicate that a tightening of the balance-of-payments constraint may account for the slowdown in Mexico’s growth only during certain subperiods of the post-liberalization era, and that the impact of real exchange rate changes on the trade balance has diminished as a result of the increasing integration of export industries into global supply chains. The results also suggest an important asymmetry, whereby a country can grow below the rate consistent with balance-of-payments equilibrium when other constraints are more binding, but cannot sustain growth above that rate. JEL classification: F43, F14, E12, O24

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Blecker, 2014. "Structural Change, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Balance of Payments in Mexico, 1960-2012," Working Papers 2014-01, American University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2014-01
    DOI: 10.17606/g79a-dq42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.17606/g79a-dq42
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17606/g79a-dq42?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of India," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 655-687.
    2. Blecker, Robert A. & Ibarra, Carlos A., 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-47.
    3. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
    4. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Nat Tharnpanich & John McCombie, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth, structural change, and the Thai economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 569-598.
    6. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    7. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2011. "Capital flows, real exchange rate, and growth constraints in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 653-668, November.
    8. Robert Blecker, 2007. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2006," Working Papers wp157, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    9. Arias-Vazquez, Francisco Javier & Azuara, Oliver & Bernal, Pedro & Heckman, James J. & Villarreal, Cajeme, 2010. "Policies to Promote Growth and Economic Efficiency in Mexico," IZA Discussion Papers 4740, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Guerrero de Lizardi, Carlos, 2003. "Modelo de crecimiento económico restringido por la balanza de pagos. Evidencia para México, 1940-2000," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(278), pages 253-273, abril-jun.
    11. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
    12. Arslan Razmi, 2011. "Exploring the robustness of the balance of payments-constrained growth idea in a multiple good framework," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(3), pages 545-567.
    13. Jose Romero, 2012. "Evolucion de la demanda Mexicana de importaciones: 1940-2009," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 9(1), pages 7-34, Enero-Jun.
    14. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    15. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1005-1027, December.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    17. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    18. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
    19. Pennelope Pacheco-Lopez & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade liberalisation in Mexico: rhetoric and reality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 141-167.
    20. Carlos Ibarra, 2010. "Exporting without growing: Investment, real currency appreciation, and export-led growth in Mexico," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 439-464.
    21. Ros, Jaime, 2013. "Rethinking Economic Development, Growth, and Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199684816.
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    23. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    24. Santiago Levy & Michael Walton, 2009. "No Growth without Equity? Inequality, Interests, and Competition in Mexico," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13263.
    25. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty, 2009. "Trade Liberalisation, the Peso, and Mexico's Commodity Trade Flows with the United States," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 693-725.
    26. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    27. Carlos Ibarra, 2011. "A note on intermediate imports and the BPCG model in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 357-368, November.
    28. Gallagher, Kevin P. & Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Porzecanski, Roberto, 2008. "The Dynamism of Mexican Exports: Lost in (Chinese) Translation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1365-1380, August.
    29. Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Ros, Jaime, 2009. "Development and Growth in the Mexican Economy: An Historical Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195371161.
    30. Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    31. Christine A. McDaniel & Laurie‐Ann Agama, 2003. "The NAFTA Preference and US‐Mexico Trade: Aggregate‐Level Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(7), pages 939-955, July.
    32. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Matheus Silva Paiva & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos, 2019. "The role of intermediate inputs in a multisectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of Mexico," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    3. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    4. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    5. Porcile, Gabriel & Sartorello Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2020. "Patterns of growth in structuralist models: The role of the real exchange rate and industrial policy," MERIT Working Papers 2020-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Jiménez López, Edison & Mungaray Lagarda, Alejandro & Osorio Novela, Germán, 2020. "The manufacturing industry in Mexico: a history of production without distribution," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    7. Tamer Rawashdeh & Mahmoud Al-Rdaydeh & Basem Hamouri, 2020. "The Effect of International Currency Crises on the Balance of Payments: Evidence From Jordan," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 275-284, October.
    8. Ismail Adigun Olayemi & Lateef Olawale Adedeji & Bashir Ayomide Adenekan & Omolola Raliat Owonikoko, 2017. "Is Nigerian Growth Trade-Led?," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 10(3), pages 80-89, September.
    9. Civcir, Irfan & Panshak, Yohanna & Ozdeser, Huseyin, 2021. "A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 240-250.
    10. Tostes Lamonica, Marcos & Feijó, Carmem Aparecida & Punzo, Lionello Franco, 2021. "The growth trajectories of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico: a comparative view through the framework space lens," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    11. Basil Oberholzer, 2023. "Green Growth and the Balance‐of‐payments Constraint," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 804-840, July.
    12. Blecker, Robert A. & Moreno Brid, Juan Carlos & Salat, Isabel, 2017. "Trumping the NAFTA renegotiation An alternative policy framework for Mexican-United States cooperation and economic convergence," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 42579, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blecker, Robert A. & Ibarra, Carlos A., 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-47.
    2. Civcir, Irfan & Panshak, Yohanna & Ozdeser, Huseyin, 2021. "A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 240-250.
    3. de Souza, João Paulo A. & Gómez-Ramírez, Leopoldo, 2018. "The paradox of Mexico's export boom without growth: A demand-side explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-113.
    4. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Matheus Silva Paiva & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos, 2019. "The role of intermediate inputs in a multisectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of Mexico," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Ferda Halicioglu, 2012. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth: the case of Turkey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 65-78.
    6. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    7. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Yohanna Panshak & Irfan Civcir & Hüseyin Ozdeser, 2019. "Technology Gap and the Role of National Innovation System in a Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    9. Woocheol Lee, 2021. "Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 631-653, December.
    10. Penelope Pacheco-Lopez & A.P. Thirlwall, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Latin America," Studies in Economics 0506, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    11. F.N. Chimphamba & M.K. Wilson, 2022. "The balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for Malawi: Evidence from the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    12. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    13. Zhandos Ybrayev, 2022. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: an application to the Kazakhstan’s economy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 745-767, December.
    14. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    15. Edgar Demetrio Tovar-Garcia & Carlos A. Carrasco, 2019. "The Balance of Payments and Russian Economic Growth," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 524-541.
    16. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Import elasticities and the external constraint in Mexico," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 363-377, September.
    17. Robert A. Blecker, 2006. "Macroeconomic and Structural Constraints on Export-Led Growth in Mexico," Working Papers 2006-05, American University, Department of Economics.
    18. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    19. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    20. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo, 2012. "New Insights from a Structural Economic Dynamic Approach to Balance of Payments Constrained Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 8, pages 217-238, Palgrave Macmillan.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2014-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Meal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.