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What Drives the Shanghai Stock Market? An Examination of its Linkage to Macroeconomic Fundamentals

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  • Julian, Inchauspe
  • Helen, Cabalu

Abstract

Previous research has struggled to explain the valuation of A-shares in the Shanghai stock market using traditional financial indicators. We offer a different perspective by analysing the influence of key macroeconomic variables. The novelty of our econometric study is the implementation of a Markov-switching mean adjustment of stock returns that allows for detecting asymmetric relationships for periods of generally increasing and decreasing stock prices. We find evidence that whereas macroeconomic indicators do not matter during tranquil periods, investors do react to changes in domestic consumption and exchange rate policy during periods of extremely high or low excess stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian, Inchauspe & Helen, Cabalu, 2013. "What Drives the Shanghai Stock Market? An Examination of its Linkage to Macroeconomic Fundamentals," MPRA Paper 93049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93049
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shanghai stock exchange (SSE); Macroeconomic fundamentals; Markov-switching (MS); bull market; bear market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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