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On the Way to Recovery: A Nonparametric Bias Free Estimation of Recovery Rate Densities

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier RENAULT

    (Standard and Poor’s Risk Solutions)

  • Olivier SCAILLET

    (HEC-University of Geneva and FAME)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse recovery rates on defaulted bonds using the Standard and Poor’s/PMD database for the years 1981-1999. Due to the specific nature of the data (observations lie within 0 and 1), we must rely on nonstandard econometric techniques. The recovery rate density is estimated nonparametrically using a beta kernel method. This method is free of boundary bias, and Monte Carlo comparison with competing nonparametric estimators show that the beta kernel density estimator is particularly well suited for density estimation on the unit interval. We challenge the usual market practice to model parametrically recovery rates using a beta distribution calibrated on the empirical mean and variance. This assumption is unable to replicate multimodal distributions or concentration of data at total recovery and total loss. We evaluate the impact of choosing the beta distribution on the estimation of credit Value-at-Risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier RENAULT & Olivier SCAILLET, 2003. "On the Way to Recovery: A Nonparametric Bias Free Estimation of Recovery Rate Densities," FAME Research Paper Series rp83, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    • Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp83
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339, Elsevier.
    2. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, September.
    3. Fan, Yanqin, 1994. "Testing the Goodness of Fit of a Parametric Density Function by Kernel Method," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 316-356, June.
    4. Olivier SCAILLET, 2001. "Density Estimation Using Inverse and Reciprocal Inverse Guassian Kernels," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2001017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Song Chen, 2000. "Probability Density Function Estimation Using Gamma Kernels," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 52(3), pages 471-480, September.
    6. Bouezmarni, Taoufik & Scaillet, Olivier, 2005. "Consistency Of Asymmetric Kernel Density Estimators And Smoothed Histograms With Application To Income Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 390-412, April.
    7. Chen, Song Xi, 1999. "Beta kernel estimators for density functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 131-145, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    default; recovery; kernel estimation; credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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