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Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence

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  • Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone

Abstract

This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its test statistic suggest a great deal of comovement/synchronization between output cycles. Following that result, a dynamic factor model is estimated. Output fluctuations are mostly explained by a global common component and an euro area common component. However, idiosyncratic components also matter, especially for France, the rest of the euro area, and the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2002. "Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2002/229, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/229
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    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    2. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    3. Shruthi Jayaram, 2009. "Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India," Working Papers id:2119, eSocialSciences.
    4. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    5. Alain N. Kabundi, 2004. "Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 2004/069, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Luxembourg: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/124, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "France: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Notes—Stress Testing Methodology and Results; Integration into Global Financial Markets; and Public Intervention in Financial Markets—Obstacles to," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/185, International Monetary Fund.
    9. James N. Blignaut & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "Is Water Shedding Next?," Working Papers 50, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    10. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2011. "Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 2011/286, International Monetary Fund.
    11. M. Y. Çakır & A. Kabundi, 2013. "Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4698-4718, November.
    12. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    13. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Marco Terrones & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 2003/246, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    15. Kabundi, Alain & Loots, Elsabe, 2007. "Co-movement between South Africa and the Southern African Development Community: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 737-748, September.

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