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Der Wirtschaftsstandort Iran zwischen Förderung und Sanktion: Eine ARDL-modellbasierte Analyse ausländischer Investitionen

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  • Sanati, Youssef

Abstract

Der Wirtschaftsstandort Iran bietet ausländischen Investoren gute Investitionsmöglichkeiten. Zudem sind die institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen für Auslandsinvestitionen in diesem Land seit der Implementierung des neuen Investitionsgesetzes in 2001 günstig. Der Zufluss der Auslandsinvestitionen in den Iran folgt zwischen 1993 und 2017 zwar einem Aufwärtstrend, ist jedoch in einigen Perioden ins Stocken geraten. Als mögliche Erklärung hierfür kann die politische Instabilität herangezogen werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde im vorliegenden Arbeitspapier eine empirische Untersuchung bezüglich der Auswirkung der externen politischen Restriktionen (wie US- und EU-Embargos) auf Auslandsinvestitionszuflüsse in den Iran durchgeführt. Das Ergebnis der Regressionsanalyse mittels Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) zeigt, dass die politische Instabilität unter Berücksichtigung anderer Einflussfaktoren sowohl kurzfristig als auch langfristig den Zufluss der Auslandsinvestitionen in den Iran negativ beeinflusst hat. Dieses Ergebnis verweist auf die entscheidende Rolle der multilateralen Abkommen wie JCPOA bei der Förderung der Auslandsinvestitionen im Iran.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanati, Youssef, 2019. "Der Wirtschaftsstandort Iran zwischen Förderung und Sanktion: Eine ARDL-modellbasierte Analyse ausländischer Investitionen," Arbeitspapiere 186, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wwuifg:186
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    Keywords

    Auslandsinvestition; Iran; Politische Instabilität; Sanktionen Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL);
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