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Feeding the Global VAR with theory: Is German wage moderation to blame for European imbalances?

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  • Bettendorf, Timo

Abstract

This paper analyses the importance of German wage moderation in the context of European imbalances. Using information from a New Keynesian small open economy model with labor market frictions, we derive sign restrictions for a wage markup shock. This information enables us to identify a German wage markup shock by imposing restrictions on the impulse response functions of German variables in a Global VAR model. We find that negative German wage markup shocks do generally cause an improvement of the domestic trade balance and a deterioration of foreign trade balances in the Euro Area. However, they account only for a limited proportion of trade balance forecast error variances. Hence, German wage moderation cannot be the lone driver of European imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Bettendorf, Timo, 2013. "Feeding the Global VAR with theory: Is German wage moderation to blame for European imbalances?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79710, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79710
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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