IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cmf/wpaper/wp2014_1406.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Neglected Serial Correlation Tests in UCARIMA Models

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We derive computationally simple and intuitive score tests of neglected serial correlation in unobserved component univariate models using frequency domain techniques. In some common situations in which the information matrix is singular under the null we derive extremum tests that are asymptotically equivalent to likelihood ratio tests, which become one-sided, and explain how to compute reliable Wald tests. We also explicitly relate the incidence of those problems to the model identification conditions and compare our tests with tests based on the reduced form prediction errors. Our Monte Carlo exercises assess the finite sample reliability and power of our proposed tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2014. "Neglected Serial Correlation Tests in UCARIMA Models," Working Papers wp2014_1406, CEMFI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2014_1406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/1406.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Planas, Christophe, 2001. "Overcoming Nonadmissibility in ARIMA-Model-Based Signal Extraction," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 455-464, October.
    2. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Dynamic specification tests for dynamic factor models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 325-346, April.
    3. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal Adjustment When Both Deterministic and Stochastic Seasonality Are Present," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 242-280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 249-279.
    5. Commandeur, Jacques J. F. & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2011. "Statistical Software for State Space Methods," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 41(i01).
    6. Luiz Koodi Hotta, 1989. "Identification Of Unobserved Components Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 259-270, May.
    7. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.
    8. Arnold Zellner, 1978. "Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zell78-1.
    9. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    10. Lee, Lung-Fei & Chesher, Andrew, 1986. "Specification testing when score test statistics are identically zero," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 121-149, March.
    11. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    12. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
    13. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    14. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    15. Marc Nerlove, 1967. "Distributed Lags and Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 221, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Demos, Antonis & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "Testing for GARCH effects: a one-sided approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 97-127, June.
    17. Newey, Whitney K, 1985. "Maximum Likelihood Specification Testing and Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1047-1070, September.
    18. Tauchen, George, 1985. "Diagnostic testing and evaluation of maximum likelihood models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 415-443.
    19. Hong, Yongmiao, 1996. "Consistent Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 837-864, July.
    20. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present," Special Studies Papers 107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España.
    22. Maravall, Agustin, 1987. "Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation of the Noise in Unobserved Component Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 115-120, January.
    23. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
    24. Sargan, J D, 1983. "Identification and Lack of Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1605-1633, November.
    25. Robert F. Engle, 1978. "Estimating Structural Models of Seasonality," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 281-308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Trevor S. Breusch, 1986. "Hypothesis Testing in Unidentified Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 635-651.
    27. Barndorff-Nielsen, O. & Schou, G., 1973. "On the parametrization of autoregressive models by partial autocorrelations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 408-419, December.
    28. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Dynamic specification tests for dynamic factor models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 325-346, April.
    2. Sentana, Enrique, 2024. "Finite underidentification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    3. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 249-279.
    4. Dante Amengual & Xinyue Bei & Enrique Sentana, 2023. "Highly Irregular Serial Correlation Tests," Working Papers wp2023_2302, CEMFI.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Dynamic specification tests for dynamic factor models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 325-346, April.
    2. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    3. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2021. "New testing approaches for mean–variance predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 516-538.
    4. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    5. Maravall, Agustin & Planas, Christophe, 1999. "Estimation error and the specification of unobserved component models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 325-353, October.
    6. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Distributional Tests in Multivariate Dynamic Models with Normal and Student-t Innovations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 133-152, February.
    7. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España.
    8. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.
    9. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Static Factor Models," Working Papers wp2009_0912, CEMFI.
    10. Dante Amengual & Xinyue Bei & Enrique Sentana, 2023. "Highly Irregular Serial Correlation Tests," Working Papers wp2023_2302, CEMFI.
    11. Campos, Julia, 1991. "A Brief Look on the Literature on Deseasonalization," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 11(2), November.
    12. Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    15. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    16. Mahmood, Talat, 1990. "Die Dynamik der Rentabilität als stochastischer Prozess: eine empirische Zeitreihenanalyse von ausgewählten deutschen und amerikanischen Unternehmen. Vom Fachbereich 20 Informatik der Technischen Univ," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 112236.
    17. Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Serial Correlation and Serial Dependence," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    18. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.
    19. Turkington, Darrell A., 1998. "Efficient estimation in the linear simultaneous equations model with vector autoregressive disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 51-74, July.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    21. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extremum tests; Kalman filter; LM tests; singular information matrix; spectral maximum likelihood; Wiener-Kolmogorov filter.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2014_1406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Araceli Requerey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemfies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.