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Estimating and forecasting the volatility of Brazilian finance series using arch models (Preliminary Version)

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  • Issler, João Victor

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to present a comprehensive emprical analysis of the return and conditional variance of four Brazilian …nancial series using models of the ARCH class. Selected models are then compared regarding forecasting accuracy and goodness-of-…t statistics. To help understanding the empirical results, a self-contained theoretical discussion of ARCH models is also presented in such a way that it is useful for the applied researcher. Empirical results show that although all series share ARCH and are leptokurtic relative to the Normal, the return on the US$ has clearly regime switching and no asymmetry for the variance, the return on COCOA has no asymmetry, while the returns on the CBOND and TELEBRAS have clear signs of asymmetry favoring the leverage e¤ect. Regarding forecasting, the best model overall was the EGARCH(1; 1) in its Gaussian version. Regarding goodness-of-…t statistics, the SWARCH model did well, followed closely by the Student-t GARCH(1; 1)

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  • Issler, João Victor, 1999. "Estimating and forecasting the volatility of Brazilian finance series using arch models (Preliminary Version)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 347, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:347
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    Cited by:

    1. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2008. "Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    2. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2004. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(2), November.
    3. Fajardo, J. & Cajueiro, D. O., 2003. "Volatility Estimation and Option Pricing with Fractional Brownian Motion," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_53, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    4. Marçal, Emerson F. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2008. "Testando A Hipótese De Contágio A Partir De Modelos Multivariados De Volatilidade [Testing the contagion hypotheses using multivariate volatility models]," MPRA Paper 10356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Barbachan, José Fajardo & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo & Silva, André de Castro, 2001. "Lévy processes and the Brazilian market," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(2), November.

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